New York 22026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 2nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 2nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Andrew Garbarino a 86.6% chance of defeating Democrat Patrick Halpin. Pollsmax projects Garbarino to receive 54.9% of the vote compared with 45.2% for Halpin, a projected Republican margin of 9.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 2nd District House election features Democrat Patrick Halpin and Republican Andrew Garbarino. Incumbent Representative Andrew Garbarino is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 2nd congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.