New York2nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 New York 2nd District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for New York's 2nd congressional district House election between Democrat Patrick Halpin and Republican Andrew Garbarino. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 New York 2nd District House election features Democrat Patrick Halpin and Republican Andrew Garbarino. Incumbent Representative Andrew Garbarino is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 2nd congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.