Tennessee 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Tennessee 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican Charlie Hatcher a 84.5% chance of defeating Democrat Chaz Molder. Pollsmax projects Hatcher to receive 54% of the vote compared with 46.1% for Molder, a projected Republican margin of 7.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee 5th District House election features Democrat Chaz Molder and Republican Charlie Hatcher. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Tennessee's 5th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.