Tennessee 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Tennessee 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican Charlie Hatcher a 95.5% chance of defeating Democrat Chaz Molder. Pollsmax projects Hatcher to receive 55.3% of the vote compared with 44.8% for Molder, a projected Republican margin of 10.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee 5th District House election features Democrat Chaz Molder and Republican Charlie Hatcher. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. This race is rated as solid Republican. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.