Tennessee5th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Tennessee 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Tennessee's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican Andy Ogles. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Tennessee 5th District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Andy Ogles. Incumbent Representative Andy Ogles is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Tennessee's 5th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TN-5
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- Andy Ogles
- Incumbent / open seat
- Andy Ogles
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 46.2% D / 53.9% R
- Projected margin
- R +7.7
- Forecast odds
- 16.4% D / 83.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —