Jake Auchincloss*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-MA)
2021 – Present
Massachusetts4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Tom Stalcup
REPUBLICAN
Physicist and Entrepreneur
2026 Massachusetts 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Jake Auchincloss and Republican Tom Stalcup. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Massachusetts 4th District House election features Democrat Jake Auchincloss and Republican Tom Stalcup. Incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Massachusetts' 4th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MA-4
- Democratic candidate
- Jake Auchincloss
- Republican candidate
- Tom Stalcup
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jake Auchincloss
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 70.0% D / 30.1% R
- Projected margin
- D +39.9
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —