Massachusetts 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Massachusetts 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Massachusetts 4th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Jake Auchincloss a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Tom Stalcup. Pollsmax projects Auchincloss to receive 73.9% of the vote compared with 26.1% for Stalcup, a projected Democratic margin of 47.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Massachusetts 4th District House election features Democrat Jake Auchincloss and Republican Tom Stalcup. Incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Massachusetts' 4th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.