Mississippi 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Mississippi 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Mississippi 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Trent Kelly a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Cliff Johnson. Pollsmax projects Kelly to receive 74.2% of the vote compared with 25.9% for Johnson, a projected Republican margin of 48.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Mississippi 1st District House election features Democrat Cliff Johnson and Republican Trent Kelly. Incumbent Representative Trent Kelly is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Mississippi's 1st congressional district by 17.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.