Mississippi1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

Trent Kelly*

REPUBLICAN

US House of Representatives (R-MS)

2015 – Present

2026 Mississippi 1st District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Mississippi's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Cliff Johnson and Republican Trent Kelly. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Mississippi 1st District House election features Democrat Cliff Johnson and Republican Trent Kelly. Incumbent Representative Trent Kelly is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Mississippi's 1st congressional district by 17.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.

Year: 2026
Race: House
District: MS-1
Democratic candidate: Cliff Johnson
Republican candidate: Trent Kelly
Incumbent / open seat: Trent Kelly
Forecast rating: Solid R
Projected vote: 30.1% D / 70.0% R
Projected margin: R +39.9
Forecast odds: 0.1% D / 99.9% R
Forecast last updated: 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
Polling average: —
Polling average margin: —
Polling last updated: —
Polls included: 0
Latest poll: —