California 482026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 48th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 48th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Marni von Wilpert a 88.3% chance of defeating Republican Jim Desmond. Pollsmax projects von Wilpert to receive 55.3% of the vote compared with 44.8% for Desmond, a projected Democratic margin of 10.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 48th District House election features Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. This race is rated as likely Democratic. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.