California 482026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 48th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 48th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Marni von Wilpert a 72.4% chance of defeating Republican Jim Desmond. Pollsmax projects Wilpert to receive 51.5% of the vote compared with 48.5% for Desmond, a projected Democratic margin of 3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 48th District House election features Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 48th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive California seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. California's 48th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.