California48th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 California 48th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for California's 48th congressional district House election between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 California 48th District House election features Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 48th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive California seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. California's 48th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.