New York19th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 New York 19th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for New York's 19th congressional district House election between Democrat Josh Riley and Republican Peter Oberacker. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 New York 19th District House election features Democrat Josh Riley and Republican Peter Oberacker. Incumbent Representative Josh Riley is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 19th congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive New York seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. New York's 19th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.