New York 192026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 19th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 19th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Josh Riley a 72.5% chance of defeating Republican Peter Oberacker. Pollsmax projects Riley to receive 51.6% of the vote compared with 48.5% for Oberacker, a projected Democratic margin of 3.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 19th District House election features Democrat Josh Riley and Republican Peter Oberacker. Incumbent Representative Josh Riley is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 19th congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive New York seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. New York's 19th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.