New York 192026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 19th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 19th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Josh Riley a 86.9% chance of defeating Republican Peter Oberacker. Pollsmax projects Riley to receive 55% of the vote compared with 45.1% for Oberacker, a projected Democratic margin of 9.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 19th District House election features Democrat Josh Riley and Republican Peter Oberacker. Incumbent Representative Josh Riley is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 19th congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.