New York14th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 New York 14th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New York's 14th congressional district House election between Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Republican Diamant Hysenaj. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 New York 14th District House election features Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Republican Diamant Hysenaj. Incumbent Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 14th congressional district by 27.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NY-14
- Democratic candidate
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Republican candidate
- Diamant Hysenaj
- Incumbent / open seat
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 70.0% D / 30.1% R
- Projected margin
- D +39.9
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —