Texas 62026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 6th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 6th District House forecast currently gives Republican Jake Ellzey a 96.8% chance of defeating Democrat Danny Minton. Pollsmax projects Ellzey to receive 59.3% of the vote compared with 40.8% for Minton, a projected Republican margin of 18.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 6th District House election features Democrat Danny Minton and Republican Jake Ellzey. Incumbent Representative Jake Ellzey is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 6th congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.