Texas6th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 6th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 6th congressional district House election between Democrat Danny Minton and Republican Jake Ellzey. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 6th District House election features Democrat Danny Minton and Republican Jake Ellzey. Incumbent Representative Jake Ellzey is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 6th congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-6
- Democratic candidate
- Danny Minton
- Republican candidate
- Jake Ellzey
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jake Ellzey
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.7% D / 59.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +18.7
- Forecast odds
- 2.8% D / 97.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —