California 492026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 49th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 49th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Mike Levin a 96.2% chance of defeating Republican Armen Kurdian. Pollsmax projects Levin to receive 58.5% of the vote compared with 41.5% for Kurdian, a projected Democratic margin of 17 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 49th District House election features Democrat Mike Levin and Republican Armen Kurdian. Incumbent Representative Mike Levin is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 49th congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.