Washington 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Washington 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Washington 3rd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez a 78.6% chance of defeating Republican John Braun. Pollsmax projects Perez to receive 52.8% of the vote compared with 47.3% for Braun, a projected Democratic margin of 5.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Washington 3rd District House election features Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican John Braun. Incumbent Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Washington's 3rd congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Washington seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Washington's 3rd District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.