California 432026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 43rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 43rd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Maxine Waters a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Cristian Morales. Pollsmax projects Waters to receive 79.4% of the vote compared with 20.6% for Morales, a projected Democratic margin of 58.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 43rd District House election features Democrat Maxine Waters and Republican Cristian Morales. Incumbent Representative Maxine Waters is seeking reelection to a nineteenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 43rd congressional district by 27.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.