California43rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 43rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 43rd congressional district House election between Democrat Maxine Waters and Republican Cristian Morales. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 43rd District House election features Democrat Maxine Waters and Republican Cristian Morales. Incumbent Representative Maxine Waters is seeking reelection to a nineteenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 43rd congressional district by 27.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-43
- Democratic candidate
- Maxine Waters
- Republican candidate
- Cristian Morales
- Incumbent / open seat
- Maxine Waters
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 70.1% D / 30.0% R
- Projected margin
- D +40.1
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —