Maryland 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Maryland 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Maryland 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Andy Harris a 96.7% chance of defeating Democrat Dan Schwartz. Pollsmax projects Harris to receive 59.1% of the vote compared with 40.9% for Schwartz, a projected Republican margin of 18.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Maryland 1st District House election features Democrat Dan Schwartz and Republican Andy Harris. Incumbent Representative Andy Harris is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Maryland's 1st congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.