Dan Schwartz
DEMOCRATIC
Consumer Advocate
Maryland1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Andy Harris*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-MD)
2011 – Present
2026 Maryland 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Maryland's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Dan Schwartz and Republican Andy Harris. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Maryland 1st District House election features Democrat Dan Schwartz and Republican Andy Harris. Incumbent Representative Andy Harris is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Maryland's 1st congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MD-1
- Democratic candidate
- Dan Schwartz
- Republican candidate
- Andy Harris
- Incumbent / open seat
- Andy Harris
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.7% D / 59.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +18.7
- Forecast odds
- 3.2% D / 96.8% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —