Texas16th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 16th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 16th congressional district House election between Democrat Veronica Escobar and Republican Adam Bauman. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 16th District House election features Democrat Veronica Escobar and Republican Adam Bauman. Incumbent Representative Veronica Escobar is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 16th congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-16
- Democratic candidate
- Veronica Escobar
- Republican candidate
- Adam Bauman
- Incumbent / open seat
- Veronica Escobar
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 65.0% D / 35.1% R
- Projected margin
- D +29.9
- Forecast odds
- 99.8% D / 0.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —