Texas 162026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 16th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 16th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Veronica Escobar a 99.8% chance of defeating Republican Adam Bauman. Pollsmax projects Escobar to receive 64.9% of the vote compared with 35.2% for Bauman, a projected Democratic margin of 29.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 16th District House election features Democrat Veronica Escobar and Republican Adam Bauman. Incumbent Representative Veronica Escobar is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 16th congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.