Wisconsin 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Wisconsin 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Wisconsin 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Bryan Steil a 85.3% chance of defeating Democrat Mitchell Berman. Pollsmax projects Steil to receive 54.7% of the vote compared with 45.4% for Berman, a projected Republican margin of 9.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Wisconsin 1st District House election features Democrat Mitchell Berman and Republican Bryan Steil. Incumbent Representative Bryan Steil is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Wisconsin's 1st congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.