Missouri 42026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Missouri 4th District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Missouri 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mark Alford a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Jordan Herrera. Pollsmax projects Alford to receive 74.6% of the vote compared with 25.4% for Herrera, a projected Republican margin of 49.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Missouri 4th District House election features Democrat Jordan Herrera and Republican Mark Alford. Incumbent Representative Mark Alford is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Missouri's 4th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MO-4
- Democratic candidate
- Jordan Herrera
- Republican candidate
- Mark Alford
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mark Alford
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 25.4% D / 74.6% R
- Projected margin
- R +49.2
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
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- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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