Missouri 42026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Missouri 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Missouri's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican Mark Alford. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Missouri 4th District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Mark Alford. Incumbent Representative Mark Alford is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Missouri's 4th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Missouri conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MO-4
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- Mark Alford
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mark Alford
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 39.9% D / 60.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +20.2
- Forecast odds
- 1.1% D / 98.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —