Pennsylvania 112026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Pennsylvania 11th District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Pennsylvania 11th District House forecast currently gives Republican Lloyd Smucker a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Nancy Mannion. Pollsmax projects Smucker to receive 65.9% of the vote compared with 34.2% for Mannion, a projected Republican margin of 31.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Pennsylvania 11th District House election features Democrat Nancy Mannion and Republican Lloyd Smucker. Incumbent Representative Lloyd Smucker is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- PA-11
- Democratic candidate
- Nancy Mannion
- Republican candidate
- Lloyd Smucker
- Incumbent / open seat
- Lloyd Smucker
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 34.2% D / 65.9% R
- Projected margin
- R +31.7
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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