Nancy Mannion
DEMOCRATIC
Registered Nurse
Pennsylvania11th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Lloyd Smucker*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-PA)
2017 – Present
2026 Pennsylvania 11th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district House election between Democrat Nancy Mannion and Republican Lloyd Smucker. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Pennsylvania 11th District House election features Democrat Nancy Mannion and Republican Lloyd Smucker. Incumbent Representative Lloyd Smucker is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- PA-11
- Democratic candidate
- Nancy Mannion
- Republican candidate
- Lloyd Smucker
- Incumbent / open seat
- Lloyd Smucker
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 34.1% D / 66.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +31.9
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —