Florida 92026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Florida 9th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Florida's 9th congressional district House election between Democrat Darren Soto and Republican TBD. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Florida 9th District House election features Democrat Darren Soto and Republican TBD. Incumbent Representative Darren Soto is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 9th congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- FL-9
- Democratic candidate
- Darren Soto
- Republican candidate
- TBD
- Incumbent / open seat
- Darren Soto
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 46.3% D / 53.7% R
- Projected margin
- R +7.4
- Forecast odds
- 16.4% D / 83.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —