Florida 92026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 9th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 9th District House forecast currently gives Republican Dan Green a 70% chance of defeating Democrat Darren Soto. Pollsmax projects Green to receive 51.9% of the vote compared with 48.2% for Soto, a projected Republican margin of 3.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 9th District House election features Democrat Darren Soto and Republican Dan Green. Incumbent Representative Darren Soto is seeking reelection to a sixth term. This race is rated as lean Republican. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Florida seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Florida's 9th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.