Florida 92026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 9th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 9th District House forecast currently gives Republican Dan Green a 83.1% chance of defeating Democrat Darren Soto. Pollsmax projects Green to receive 53.3% of the vote compared with 46.7% for Soto, a projected Republican margin of 6.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 9th District House election features Democrat Darren Soto and Republican Dan Green. Incumbent Representative Darren Soto is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 9th congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.