Louisiana 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Louisiana 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Louisiana 5th District House forecast currently gives the Republican nominee a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Dan McKay. Pollsmax projects the Republican nominee to receive 61.4% of the vote compared with 38.6% for McKay, a projected Republican margin of 22.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Louisiana 5th District House election features Democrat Dan McKay and Republican TBD. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. This race is rated as solid Republican. Louisiana conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.