Herb Conaway*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-NJ)
2025 – Present
New Jersey3rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Michael McGuire
REPUBLICAN
US Marine Corps
2026 New Jersey 3rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New Jersey's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat Herb Conaway and Republican Michael McGuire. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 New Jersey 3rd District House election features Democrat Herb Conaway and Republican Michael McGuire. Incumbent Representative Herb Conaway is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New Jersey's 3rd congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NJ-3
- Democratic candidate
- Herb Conaway
- Republican candidate
- Michael McGuire
- Incumbent / open seat
- Herb Conaway
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 57.8% D / 42.2% R
- Projected margin
- D +15.6
- Forecast odds
- 95.8% D / 4.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —