New Jersey 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New Jersey 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New Jersey 3rd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Herb Conaway a 95.4% chance of defeating Republican Michael McGuire. Pollsmax projects Conaway to receive 57.7% of the vote compared with 42.3% for McGuire, a projected Democratic margin of 15.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New Jersey 3rd District House election features Democrat Herb Conaway and Republican Michael McGuire. Incumbent Representative Herb Conaway is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New Jersey's 3rd congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.