Pennsylvania 82026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Pennsylvania 8th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Pennsylvania 8th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Paige Cognetti a 58.2% chance of defeating Republican Rob Bresnahan. Pollsmax projects Cognetti to receive 50.7% of the vote compared with 49.4% for Bresnahan, a projected Democratic margin of 1.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Pennsylvania 8th District House election features Democrat Paige Cognetti and Republican Rob Bresnahan. Incumbent Representative Rob Bresnahan is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Pennsylvania seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Pennsylvania's 8th District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.