New York 242026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 24th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 24th District House forecast currently gives Republican Claudia Tenney a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Alissa Ellman. Pollsmax projects Tenney to receive 65% of the vote compared with 35% for Ellman, a projected Republican margin of 30 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 24th District House election features Democrat Alissa Ellman and Republican Claudia Tenney. Incumbent Representative Claudia Tenney is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 24th congressional district by 1.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.