Alissa Ellman
DEMOCRATIC
Program Support Assistant at the US Department of Veterans Affairs
New York24th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Claudia Tenney*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-NY)
2017 – 2019, 2021 – Present
2026 New York 24th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New York's 24th congressional district House election between Democrat Alissa Ellman and Republican Claudia Tenney. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 New York 24th District House election features Democrat Alissa Ellman and Republican Claudia Tenney. Incumbent Representative Claudia Tenney is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 24th congressional district by 1.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NY-24
- Democratic candidate
- Alissa Ellman
- Republican candidate
- Claudia Tenney
- Incumbent / open seat
- Claudia Tenney
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.1% D / 65.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +29.9
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —