Kentucky 42026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Kentucky 4th District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Kentucky 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Ed Gallrein a 99.6% chance of defeating Democrat Melissa Strange. Pollsmax projects Gallrein to receive 64.3% of the vote compared with 35.8% for Strange, a projected Republican margin of 28.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Kentucky 4th District House election features Democrat Melissa Strange and Republican Ed Gallrein. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kentucky's 4th congressional district by 19.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- KY-4
- Democratic candidate
- Melissa Strange
- Republican candidate
- Ed Gallrein
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.8% D / 64.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +28.5
- Forecast odds
- 0.4% D / 99.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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