Melissa Strange
DEMOCRATIC
Businesswoman
Kentucky4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Ed Gallrein
REPUBLICAN
Farmer
2026 Kentucky 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Kentucky's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Melissa Strange and Republican Ed Gallrein. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Kentucky 4th District House election features Democrat Melissa Strange and Republican Ed Gallrein. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kentucky's 4th congressional district by 19.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- KY-4
- Democratic candidate
- Melissa Strange
- Republican candidate
- Ed Gallrein
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.7% D / 64.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +28.6
- Forecast odds
- 0.3% D / 99.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —