New York 182026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 18th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 18th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Pat Ryan a 95.5% chance of defeating Republican Jacqueline Auringer. Pollsmax projects Ryan to receive 57.7% of the vote compared with 42.4% for Auringer, a projected Democratic margin of 15.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 18th District House election features Democrat Pat Ryan and Republican Jacqueline Auringer. Incumbent Representative Pat Ryan is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 18th congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.