Texas3rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 3rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat Evan Hunt and Republican Keith Self. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 3rd District House election features Democrat Evan Hunt and Republican Keith Self. Incumbent Representative Keith Self is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 3rd congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-3
- Democratic candidate
- Evan Hunt
- Republican candidate
- Keith Self
- Incumbent / open seat
- Keith Self
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.1% D / 60.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +19.9
- Forecast odds
- 1.4% D / 98.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —