Kentucky 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Kentucky 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Kentucky 3rd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Morgan McGarvey a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Maria Rodriguez. Pollsmax projects McGarvey to receive 65.8% of the vote compared with 34.3% for Rodriguez, a projected Democratic margin of 31.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Kentucky 3rd District House election features Democrat Morgan McGarvey and Republican Maria Rodriguez. Incumbent Representative Morgan McGarvey is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Kentucky's 3rd congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.