Morgan McGarvey*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-KY)
2023 – Present
Kentucky3rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Maria Rodriguez
REPUBLICAN
Cleaning Contractor
2026 Kentucky 3rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat Morgan McGarvey and Republican Maria Rodriguez. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Kentucky 3rd District House election features Democrat Morgan McGarvey and Republican Maria Rodriguez. Incumbent Representative Morgan McGarvey is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Kentucky's 3rd congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- KY-3
- Democratic candidate
- Morgan McGarvey
- Republican candidate
- Maria Rodriguez
- Incumbent / open seat
- Morgan McGarvey
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 65.8% D / 34.3% R
- Projected margin
- D +31.5
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —