Tennessee 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Tennessee 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee 3rd District House forecast currently gives Republican Chuck Fleischmann a 99.6% chance of defeating Democrat Anna Golladay. Pollsmax projects Fleischmann to receive 64% of the vote compared with 36% for Golladay, a projected Republican margin of 28 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee 3rd District House election features Democrat Anna Golladay and Republican Chuck Fleischmann. Incumbent Representative Chuck Fleischmann is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee's 3rd congressional district by 19.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.