Tennessee 32026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Tennessee 3rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Tennessee's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican Chuck Fleischmann. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Tennessee 3rd District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Chuck Fleischmann. Incumbent Representative Chuck Fleischmann is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee's 3rd congressional district by 19.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TN-3
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- Chuck Fleischmann
- Incumbent / open seat
- Chuck Fleischmann
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 36.1% D / 64.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +27.9
- Forecast odds
- 0.5% D / 99.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —