California 92026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 9th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 9th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Josh Harder a 99.5% chance of defeating Republican John McBride. Pollsmax projects Harder to receive 63.9% of the vote compared with 36.2% for McBride, a projected Democratic margin of 27.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 9th District House election features Democrat Josh Harder and Republican John McBride. Incumbent Representative Josh Harder is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 9th congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.