California22nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 California 22nd District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for California's 22nd congressional district House election between Democrat Randy Villegas and Republican David Valadao. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 California 22nd District House election features Democrat Randy Villegas and Republican David Valadao. Incumbent Representative David Valadao is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 22nd congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive California seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. California's 22nd District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.