California 222026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 22nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 22nd District House forecast currently gives Republican David Valadao a 65% chance of defeating Democrat Randy Villegas. Pollsmax projects Valadao to receive 50.5% of the vote compared with 49.5% for Villegas, a projected Republican margin of 1 percentage point. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 22nd District House election features Democrat Randy Villegas and Republican David Valadao. Incumbent Representative David Valadao is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 22nd congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive California seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. California's 22nd District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.