California 62026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 6th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 6th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Richard Pan a 98.9% chance of defeating independent Kevin Kiley. Pollsmax projects Pan to receive 60.4% of the vote compared with 39.7% for Kiley, a projected Democratic margin of 20.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 6th District House election features Democrat Richard Pan and independent Kevin Kiley. Incumbent Representative Kevin Kiley is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 6th congressional district by 19.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.