California6th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
';" />2026 California 6th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 6th congressional district House election between Democrat Richard Pan and independent Kevin Kiley. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 6th District House election features Democrat Richard Pan and independent Kevin Kiley. Incumbent Representative Kevin Kiley is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 6th congressional district by 19.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-6
- Democratic candidate
- Richard Pan
- INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE
- Kevin Kiley
- Incumbent / open seat
- Kevin Kiley
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 60.8% D / 39.3% R
- Projected margin
- D +21.5
- Forecast odds
- 99.1% D / 0.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —