Rachel Peace
DEMOCRATIC
Business Owner
New Jersey4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Chris Smith*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-NJ)
1981 – Present
2026 New Jersey 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New Jersey's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Rachel Peace and Republican Chris Smith. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 New Jersey 4th District House election features Democrat Rachel Peace and Republican Chris Smith. Incumbent Representative Chris Smith is seeking reelection to a 24th term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New Jersey's 4th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NJ-4
- Democratic candidate
- Rachel Peace
- Republican candidate
- Chris Smith
- Incumbent / open seat
- Chris Smith
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 30.0% D / 70.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +40.0
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —