New Jersey 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New Jersey 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New Jersey 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Chris Smith a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Rachel Peace. Pollsmax projects Smith to receive 73% of the vote compared with 27% for Peace, a projected Republican margin of 46 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New Jersey 4th District House election features Democrat Rachel Peace and Republican Chris Smith. Incumbent Representative Chris Smith is seeking reelection to a 24th term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New Jersey's 4th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.