Ohio 112026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Ohio 11th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Ohio 11th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Shontel Brown a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Mike Kirchner. Pollsmax projects Brown to receive 79.8% of the vote compared with 20.3% for Kirchner, a projected Democratic margin of 59.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Ohio 11th District House election features Democrat Shontel Brown and Republican Mike Kirchner. Incumbent Representative Shontel Brown is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Ohio's 11th congressional district by 30.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.