New York 202026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 20th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 20th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Paul Tonko a 99.3% chance of defeating Republican Ralph Ambrosio. Pollsmax projects Tonko to receive 61.6% of the vote compared with 38.5% for Ambrosio, a projected Democratic margin of 23.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 20th District House election features Democrat Paul Tonko and Republican Ralph Ambrosio. Incumbent Representative Paul Tonko is seeking reelection to a tenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 20th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.