Paul Tonko*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-NY)
2009 – Present
New York20th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Ralph Ambrosio
REPUBLICAN
Attorney
2026 New York 20th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New York's 20th congressional district House election between Democrat Paul Tonko and Republican Ralph Ambrosio. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 New York 20th District House election features Democrat Paul Tonko and Republican Ralph Ambrosio. Incumbent Representative Paul Tonko is seeking reelection to a tenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 20th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NY-20
- Democratic candidate
- Paul Tonko
- Republican candidate
- Ralph Ambrosio
- Incumbent / open seat
- Paul Tonko
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 61.5% D / 38.5% R
- Projected margin
- D +23.0
- Forecast odds
- 99.0% D / 1.0% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —