Ohio 92026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Ohio 9th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Ohio 9th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Marcy Kaptur a 78.3% chance of defeating Republican Derek Merrin. Pollsmax projects Kaptur to receive 52.4% of the vote compared with 47.6% for Merrin, a projected Democratic margin of 4.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Ohio 9th District House election features Democrat Marcy Kaptur and Republican Derek Merrin. Incumbent Representative Marcy Kaptur is seeking reelection to a 23rd term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Ohio's 9th congressional district by 12.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Ohio seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Ohio's 9th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.