Ohio9th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Ohio 9th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Ohio's 9th congressional district House election between Democrat Marcy Kaptur and Republican Derek Merrin. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Ohio 9th District House election features Democrat Marcy Kaptur and Republican Derek Merrin. Incumbent Representative Marcy Kaptur is seeking reelection to a 23rd term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Ohio's 9th congressional district by 12.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Ohio seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Ohio's 9th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.