Pennsylvania1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Pennsylvania 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Bob Harvie and Republican Brian Fitzpatrick. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Pennsylvania 1st District House election features Democrat Bob Harvie and Republican Brian Fitzpatrick. Incumbent Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Pennsylvania seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Pennsylvania's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- PA-1
- Democratic candidate
- Bob Harvie
- Republican candidate
- Brian Fitzpatrick
- Incumbent / open seat
- Brian Fitzpatrick
- Forecast rating
- Lean R
- Projected vote
- 48.7% D / 51.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +2.6
- Forecast odds
- 29.2% D / 70.8% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —