Pennsylvania 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Pennsylvania 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Pennsylvania 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Brian Fitzpatrick a 72.4% chance of defeating Democrat Bob Harvie. Pollsmax projects Fitzpatrick to receive 51.5% of the vote compared with 48.5% for Harvie, a projected Republican margin of 3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Pennsylvania 1st District House election features Democrat Bob Harvie and Republican Brian Fitzpatrick. Incumbent Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Pennsylvania seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Pennsylvania's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.