Chris Backemeyer
DEMOCRATIC
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State
Nebraska1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Mike Flood*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-NE)
2022 – Present
2026 Nebraska 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Nebraska's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Chris Backemeyer and Republican Mike Flood. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Nebraska 1st District House election features Democrat Chris Backemeyer and Republican Mike Flood. Incumbent Representative Mike Flood is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Nebraska's 1st congressional district by 12.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NE-1
- Democratic candidate
- Chris Backemeyer
- Republican candidate
- Mike Flood
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mike Flood
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 44.5% D / 55.5% R
- Projected margin
- R +11.0
- Forecast odds
- 9.9% D / 90.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —