Nebraska 12026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Nebraska 1st District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Nebraska 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Mike Flood a 86.4% chance of defeating Democrat Chris Backemeyer. Pollsmax projects Flood to receive 54.9% of the vote compared with 45.1% for Backemeyer, a projected Republican margin of 9.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Nebraska 1st District House election features Democrat Chris Backemeyer and Republican Mike Flood. Incumbent Representative Mike Flood is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Nebraska's 1st congressional district by 12.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NE-1
- Democratic candidate
- Chris Backemeyer
- Republican candidate
- Mike Flood
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mike Flood
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 45.1% D / 54.9% R
- Projected margin
- R +9.8
- Forecast odds
- 13.6% D / 86.4% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- 33.5% D / 44.5% R
- Polling average margin
- R +11.0
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 3
- Latest poll
- Global Strategy Group (D) — September 2, 2026