New York3rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 New York 3rd District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for New York's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Mike LiPetri. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 New York 3rd District House election features Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Mike LiPetri. Incumbent Representative Tom Suozzi is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 3rd congressional district by 0.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.