New York 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 3rd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Tom Suozzi a 87.9% chance of defeating Republican Mike LiPetri. Pollsmax projects Suozzi to receive 55.1% of the vote compared with 44.9% for LiPetri, a projected Democratic margin of 10.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 3rd District House election features Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Mike LiPetri. Incumbent Representative Tom Suozzi is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 3rd congressional district by 0.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.