Iowa 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Iowa 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Iowa 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Chris McGowan a 99.3% chance of defeating Democrat Dave Dawson. Pollsmax projects McGowan to receive 62.9% of the vote compared with 37.2% for Dawson, a projected Republican margin of 25.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Iowa 4th District House election features Democrat Dave Dawson and Republican Chris McGowan. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa's 4th congressional district by 12.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.