Dave Dawson
DEMOCRATIC
Iowa State House (D)
2013 – 2017
Iowa4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Chris McGowan
REPUBLICAN
President, Siouxland Chamber of Commerce
2026 Iowa 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Iowa's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Dave Dawson and Republican Chris McGowan. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Iowa 4th District House election features Democrat Dave Dawson and Republican Chris McGowan. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa's 4th congressional district by 12.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- IA-4
- Democratic candidate
- Dave Dawson
- Republican candidate
- Chris McGowan
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 37.0% D / 63.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +26.0
- Forecast odds
- 0.5% D / 99.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —