Maine2nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Maine 2nd District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Maine's 2nd congressional district House election between Democrat Matthew Dunlap and Republican Paul LePage. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Maine 2nd District House election features Democrat Matthew Dunlap and Republican Paul LePage. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Maine seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Maine's 2nd District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.