Maine 22026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Maine 2nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Maine 2nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Paul LePage a 65.8% chance of defeating Democrat Matthew Dunlap. Pollsmax projects LePage to receive 50.5% of the vote compared with 49.5% for Dunlap, a projected Republican margin of 1 percentage point. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Maine 2nd District House election features Democrat Matthew Dunlap and Republican Paul LePage. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Maine seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Maine's 2nd District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.