Virginia 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Virginia 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Virginia 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Rob Wittman a 75.3% chance of defeating Democrat Shannon Taylor. Pollsmax projects Wittman to receive 51.9% of the vote compared with 48.1% for Taylor, a projected Republican margin of 3.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Virginia 1st District House election features Democrat Shannon Taylor and Republican Rob Wittman. Incumbent Representative Rob Wittman is seeking reelection to a eleventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Virginia's 1st congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Virginia seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Virginia's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.