Virginia1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Virginia 1st District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Virginia's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican Rob Wittman. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Virginia 1st District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Rob Wittman. Incumbent Representative Rob Wittman is seeking reelection to a eleventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Virginia's 1st congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Virginia seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Virginia's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.