Texas 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican Lance Gooden a 98.8% chance of defeating Democrat Chelsey Hockett. Pollsmax projects Gooden to receive 60% of the vote compared with 40.1% for Hockett, a projected Republican margin of 19.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 5th District House election features Democrat Chelsey Hockett and Republican Lance Gooden. Incumbent Representative Lance Gooden is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 5th congressional district by 17.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.