Texas5th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat Chelsey Hockett and Republican Lance Gooden. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 5th District House election features Democrat Chelsey Hockett and Republican Lance Gooden. Incumbent Representative Lance Gooden is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 5th congressional district by 17.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-5
- Democratic candidate
- Chelsey Hockett
- Republican candidate
- Lance Gooden
- Incumbent / open seat
- Lance Gooden
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.0% D / 60.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +20.1
- Forecast odds
- 1.2% D / 98.8% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —