Texas20th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 20th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 20th congressional district House election between Democrat Joaquin Castro and Republican Edgardo Baez. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 20th District House election features Democrat Joaquin Castro and Republican Edgardo Baez. Incumbent Representative Joaquin Castro is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 20th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-20
- Democratic candidate
- Joaquin Castro
- Republican candidate
- Edgardo Baez
- Incumbent / open seat
- Joaquin Castro
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 69.2% D / 30.9% R
- Projected margin
- D +38.3
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —