Texas 202026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 20th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 20th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Joaquin Castro a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Edgardo Baez. Pollsmax projects Castro to receive 69.2% of the vote compared with 30.8% for Baez, a projected Democratic margin of 38.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 20th District House election features Democrat Joaquin Castro and Republican Edgardo Baez. Incumbent Representative Joaquin Castro is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 20th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.