Michigan 72026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Michigan 7th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Michigan 7th District House forecast currently gives Democrat William Lawrence a 51.6% chance of defeating Republican Tom Barrett. Pollsmax projects Lawrence to receive 50.2% of the vote compared with 49.9% for Barrett, a projected Democratic margin of 0.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Michigan 7th District House election features Democrat William Lawrence and Republican Tom Barrett. Incumbent Representative Tom Barrett is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Michigan's 7th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Michigan seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Michigan's 7th District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.