North Carolina 102026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 North Carolina 10th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 North Carolina 10th District House forecast currently gives Republican Pat Harrigan a 97% chance of defeating Democrat Ashley Bell. Pollsmax projects Harrigan to receive 59.6% of the vote compared with 40.4% for Bell, a projected Republican margin of 19.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 North Carolina 10th District House election features Democrat Ashley Bell and Republican Pat Harrigan. Incumbent Representative Pat Harrigan is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina's 10th congressional district by 13.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.