North Carolina10th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 North Carolina 10th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for North Carolina's 10th congressional district House election between Democrat Ashley Bell and Republican Pat Harrigan. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 North Carolina 10th District House election features Democrat Ashley Bell and Republican Pat Harrigan. Incumbent Representative Pat Harrigan is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina's 10th congressional district by 13.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NC-10
- Democratic candidate
- Ashley Bell
- Republican candidate
- Pat Harrigan
- Incumbent / open seat
- Pat Harrigan
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.4% D / 59.6% R
- Projected margin
- R +19.2
- Forecast odds
- 2.7% D / 97.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —