Jill Tokuda*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-HI)
2023 – Present
Hawaii2nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Brenton Awa
REPUBLICAN
Minority Leader, Hawaii State Senate (R)
2024 – Present
2026 Hawaii 2nd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district House election between Democrat Jill Tokuda and Republican Brenton Awa. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Hawaii 2nd District House election features Democrat Jill Tokuda and Republican Brenton Awa. Incumbent Representative Jill Tokuda is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Hawaii's 2nd congressional district by 17.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- HI-2
- Democratic candidate
- Jill Tokuda
- Republican candidate
- Brenton Awa
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jill Tokuda
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 70.0% D / 30.1% R
- Projected margin
- D +39.9
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —