Hawaii 22026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Hawaii 2nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Hawaii 2nd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Jill Tokuda a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Brenton Awa. Pollsmax projects Tokuda to receive 75.1% of the vote compared with 24.9% for Awa, a projected Democratic margin of 50.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Hawaii 2nd District House election features Democrat Jill Tokuda and Republican Brenton Awa. Incumbent Representative Jill Tokuda is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Hawaii's 2nd congressional district by 17.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.