Florida 212026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 21st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 21st District House forecast currently gives Republican Brian Mast a 92.9% chance of defeating Democrat James Martin. Pollsmax projects Mast to receive 57.2% of the vote compared with 42.9% for Martin, a projected Republican margin of 14.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 21st District House election features Democrat James Martin and Republican Brian Mast. Incumbent Representative Brian Mast is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 21st congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.