Louisiana 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Louisiana 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Louisiana 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Steve Scalise a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Lauren Jewett. Pollsmax projects Scalise to receive 64.8% of the vote compared with 35.3% for Jewett, a projected Republican margin of 29.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Louisiana 1st District House election features Democrat Lauren Jewett and Republican Steve Scalise. Incumbent Representative Steve Scalise is seeking reelection to a tenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Louisiana's 1st congressional district by 25.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Louisiana conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.