Louisiana1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Louisiana 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Louisiana's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Lauren Jewett and Republican Steve Scalise. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Louisiana 1st District House election features Democrat Lauren Jewett and Republican Steve Scalise. Incumbent Representative Steve Scalise is seeking reelection to a tenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Louisiana's 1st congressional district by 25.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Louisiana conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- LA-1
- Democratic candidate
- Lauren Jewett
- Republican candidate
- Steve Scalise
- Incumbent / open seat
- Steve Scalise
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.2% D / 64.8% R
- Projected margin
- R +29.6
- Forecast odds
- 0.2% D / 99.8% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —