Arizona 62026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Arizona 6th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arizona 6th District House forecast currently gives Republican Juan Ciscomani a 65.4% chance of defeating Democrat JoAnna Mendoza. Pollsmax projects Ciscomani to receive 50.6% of the vote compared with 49.5% for Mendoza, a projected Republican margin of 1.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arizona 6th District House election features Democrat JoAnna Mendoza and Republican Juan Ciscomani. Incumbent Representative Juan Ciscomani is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona's 6th congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Arizona seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Arizona's 6th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.