Arizona 62026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Arizona 6th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Arizona's 6th congressional district House election between Democrat JoAnna Mendoza and Republican Juan Ciscomani. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Arizona 6th District House election features Democrat JoAnna Mendoza and Republican Juan Ciscomani. Incumbent Representative Juan Ciscomani is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona's 6th congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Arizona seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Arizona's 6th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.