California 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Mike McGuire a 94.2% chance of defeating Republican James Gallagher. Pollsmax projects McGuire to receive 57.5% of the vote compared with 42.6% for Gallagher, a projected Democratic margin of 14.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 1st District House election features Democrat Mike McGuire and Republican James Gallagher. Incumbent Representative James Gallagher is seeking reelection to a first term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 1st congressional district by 12.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.