California1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Mike McGuire and Republican James Gallagher. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 1st District House election features Democrat Mike McGuire and Republican James Gallagher. Incumbent Representative James Gallagher is seeking reelection to a first term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 1st congressional district by 12.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-1
- Democratic candidate
- Mike McGuire
- Republican candidate
- James Gallagher
- Incumbent / open seat
- James Gallagher
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 57.4% D / 42.6% R
- Projected margin
- D +14.8
- Forecast odds
- 93.9% D / 6.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —