Texas 92026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 9th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 9th District House forecast currently gives Republican Alex Mealer a 67.8% chance of defeating Democrat Leticia Gutierrez. Pollsmax projects Mealer to receive 50.9% of the vote compared with 49.2% for Gutierrez, a projected Republican margin of 1.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 9th District House election features Democrat Leticia Gutierrez and Republican Alex Mealer. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 9th congressional district by 27.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Texas seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Texas' 9th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.