California 162026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 16th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 16th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Sam Liccardo a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Peter Soulé. Pollsmax projects Liccardo to receive 76.9% of the vote compared with 23.1% for Soulé, a projected Democratic margin of 53.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 16th District House election features Democrat Sam Liccardo and Republican Peter Soulé. Incumbent Representative Sam Liccardo is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 16th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.