California16th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 16th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 16th congressional district House election between Democrat Sam Liccardo and Republican Peter Soulé. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 16th District House election features Democrat Sam Liccardo and Republican Peter Soulé. Incumbent Representative Sam Liccardo is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 16th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-16
- Democratic candidate
- Sam Liccardo
- Republican candidate
- Peter Soulé
- Incumbent / open seat
- Sam Liccardo
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 70.1% D / 29.9% R
- Projected margin
- D +40.2
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —